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Molecular dynamics research at the University of Illinois is giving scientists a fundamental understanding of the chemistry behind what may someday become a method of disposing of excess greenhouse gases.
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For all the transparency that its name implies, the greenhouse effect and its impact on global warming is a muddied topic. Many scientists believe that greenhouse gas emissions will cause average global temperatures to rise by almost 6 F degrees over the next 100 years. Other best guesses put the number at something closer to 3.5 F degrees. And contrarians maintain that there is no compelling reason to think that a rise in global temperature is caused by increases in greenhouse gas emissions in the first place. Few, however, dispute that the levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and chlorofluorocarbons have risen tremendously in the last 100 years. The atmospheric carbon dioxide level, for example, is up about 25 percent since the late 1800s, with most of this rise coming in the last 50 years alone. That level is higher than it has been in the last 160,000 years, and the burning of fossil fuels is the largest contributing factor. |
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"There's no doubt that carbon dioxide levels have increased since the industrial revolution," says James Kirkpatrick, a geology professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. "But is the carbon dioxide increase causing global warming through the greenhouse effect? And if it is, what can be done about it?" Kirkpatrick and his colleague Andrey Kalinichev are currently working on the chemistry behind that second question. They create molecular dynamics models of carbon dioxide and other chemical species as they dissolve in water, as well as models of that water-carbon dioxide solution as it interacts with mineral surfaces. These simulations, which are being run on NCSA's SGI Origin2000 supercomputer, will help researchers develop methods of "sequestering" carbon dioxide—injecting it deep into the ocean or a deep groundwater aquifers where it won't interact with the atmosphere and won't have the same negative environmental impact.
"We're focused on the fundamentals here, but there's a broad societal connection to the science," says Kirkpatrick.
Access Online | Posted 10-3-2000 |
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