Rapid Decision Support for Hazard Responses by Cyberenvironment of Urban Infrastructure Networks
Award year: 2009-2010
Society is increasingly demanding scientific accountability behind hazard mitigations and responses. Central to meeting these demands is to develop a cyberenvironment for infrastructure networks that can assess the effects of structural damage on the disruptions of residential/commercial activities, post-disaster responses and recovery efforts. Due to the complexity of the problem, risk assessment of lifeline networks is often performed by repeated computational simulations based on random samples of hazard intensities and component status. This sampling-based approach prevents rapid risk assessment and decision support for hazard responses based on online monitoring data. The main goal of the proposed project is to develop a non-sampling-based system reliability analysis method that enables rapid risk-informed decision support for hazard responses using a cyberenvironment of infrastructure networks integrated with network monitoring systems. The main theoretical framework of the research is the matrix-based system reliability (MSR) method, which allows rapid risk assessment and flexible probabilistic inference. The method has been further developed for multi-scale analysis of lifeline networks and for stochastic network flow analysis. In order to achieve the goal of rapid decision support based on online monitoring data, it is proposed to further develop the MSR method so that it can be integrated smoothly with network flow analysis algorithms. The method will be also generalized to obtain the joint probability distributions of monitoring data observed at multiple locations efficiently. This proposed approach is expected to account for the system effect of the network flow, the vulnerability of structures and hazard models through efficient system reliability analysis.