Building a ‘Large Hadron Collider for Climate Change’ – Together October 15, 2024 Science Features Artificial IntelligenceEarth and EnvironmentModeling and SimulationPartnerships Share this page: Twitter Facebook LinkedIn Email Participants at the International Climate Computer Summit, hosted by NCSA and CLiMAS, look up and smile for a drone photograph. (Photo credit: Darrell Hoemann.) By KJ Naum As climate change moves from being a distant threat to a present-day reality, scientific insight into its effects on the planet is more important than ever. Robust Earth system modeling and climate projection allow us to better understand the forces shaping our world, enabling stakeholder communities to make smart, sustainable decisions in an otherwise unpredictable future. Seeking to take this science to the next level – and center the needs of communities in doing so – the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) and the Department of Climate, Meteorology, & Atmospheric Sciences (CliMAS) hosted the recent International Summit on a Computational System for Frontier Earth System Science and Climate Simulation & Projection, bringing together nearly 100 leading experts from around the globe in person and online. Kelvin K. Droegemeier presents at the International Climate Computer Summit. Photo credit: Darrell Hoemann. Hosted just days after the devastation wrought on the southeastern United States by Hurricane Helene, the summit’s objective – to co-design a computational environment that supports kilometer-scale global climate simulations – built on existing worldwide efforts to develop high-resolution Earth system models (ESMs). “When combined with artificial intelligence and machine learning, these ESMs are poised to transform our understanding of the global Earth system and vastly improve our ability to project future climate states,” said Kelvin K. Droegemeier, chair of the summit, Professor of Atmospheric Science and Special Advisor to the Chancellor for Science and Policy at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. Models like these offer the promise of kilometer-scale resolution: a level of detail that can yield invaluable insights into the incredibly complex interactions of Earth systems affected by climate change. However, such models can only be useful if they are run on a computational environment that’s up to the task. Such an environment doesn’t yet exist, but leadership at Illinois and worldwide are eager to make it a reality. Droegemeier continues, “We believe it can be created if the international climate research community joins forces in ways it never has before. Such an effort would not replace existing research strategies but rather add value to them, also opening new vistas of educational opportunity and providing practitioners and stakeholders with the information they need for making decisions across all sectors of society.” Leadership at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, where the conference was held, couldn’t agree more. “This is a big initiative, and I think we can do big things,” said Tim Killeen, President of the University of Illinois system, at the opening night reception for the summit. “Land grant institutions like the University of Illinois can be a trusted, neutral place for collaborations of this kind.” Speaking the following day, U. of I. Chancellor Robert Jones concurred. Describing climate change as “one of the most compelling international challenges of our time” – one that land-grant universities are well-positioned to tackle – Jones emphasized the collaborative nature of addressing climate change. This isn’t business as usual. This has to be business as unusual. We look forward to what we – the collective we – will build together. –U. of I. Chancellor Robert Jones Highlighting the many milestones achieved by Illinois research institutes like NCSA, Illinois Vice Chancellor of Research and Innovation Susan Martinis added, “The University of Illinois was founded to serve the state, the nation, and the world. We know how to conduct research that changes lives in positive ways.” Topics at the conference ranged far and wide, seeking to synthesize the broad variety of domains involved in this ambitious initiative and make progress toward what was repeatedly described as a “Large Hadron Collider for climate change.” The envisioned computational environment would be a transformative, world-class resource built to enable kilometer-scale modeling and climate projection, accessible by researchers worldwide, whose outputs can serve the needs of communities already feeling the effects of global warming. Jean Brokish from American Farmland Trust presents during the International Climate Computer Summit. Photo credit: Darrell Hoemann. Following an initial brainstorming session, a panel of global experts provided an overview of the current state of fine-scale Earth system modeling and AI-based systems for weather and climate. In particular, the potential of AI-based modeling was discussed, highlighting the relatively fast speed and low cost at which it can be developed, along with its associated challenges as a new and only partially understood technology. In response to a non-expert asking why there were so many competing models for climate forecasting, Andreas Prein, Professor for High-Resolution Weather and Climate Modeling at the Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC), explained, “Having an ensemble of models with different approaches is really valuable. If you have only one modeling system, you underestimate uncertainties in future weather and climate changes. You want to have a physically based model that behaves realistically, but exploring the diversity of assumptions used in models is really important, too.” Mindful that climate change is far more than an academic exercise and requires engagement from communities of all backgrounds, the summit also provided a platform for stakeholders from industry, government, and non-profit sectors, spotlighting a variety of real-world perspectives on the benefits that this computational environment might create for their communities. Speaking on behalf of farmers and agricultural stakeholders working with American Farmland Trust, Jean Brokish asked, “How can we ensure these insights are accessible and applicable? It’s important to frame climate data into appropriate scales and timelines that can help farmers adapt to changing conditions.” Conference attendees mingle and discuss ideas at the International Climate Computer Summit. Photo credit: Darrell Hoemann. Coming right on the heels of a highly technical session, multiple speakers in this panel joked that they weren’t quite sure they were supposed to be at this meeting. Droegemeier was quick to affirm the central role of community stakeholders in this work. They’re the people that are on the front lines, and if we as scientists don’t reach out and help them understand and become part of our community, then we’ve really missed the boat. I hope that a year from now, they can feel they are exactly where they are supposed to be. –Kelvin K. Droegemeier, Summit Chair Over the course of the summit, participants of all backgrounds discussed open questions and worked together in breakout groups on a variety of topics selected to drive progress toward making the computational environment a reality. Attendees were encouraged not to get into the weeds of highly technical research questions but rather to think broadly and be unafraid of getting a little uncomfortable. A shared vision emerged of a world in which trusted leaders and advocates have equitable access to reliable and timely climate information for decision-making on behalf of their communities. NCSA’s Director, Bill Gropp, addresses attendees at the International Climate Computer Summit. Photo credit: Darrell Hoemann. NCSA co-hosted the event, drawing on its long history of taking scientific research and societal impact to the next level through its expertise in high-performance computing and data. Speaking on the opening night of the summit, NCSA Director Bill Gropp emphasized the Center’s enthusiasm for the project and the timeliness of this moment – not only for the global climate but in computing. “We are in a renaissance for hardware innovation,” he said, “and computer performance has also spurred a transformation in software.” As the National Science Foundation (NSF) leader in AI compute, NCSA has a proven track record of delivering transformative research outcomes and managing large-scale, collaborative projects. “We look forward to realizing this vision of a computational environment that can help us understand and manage the changing climate that we’re seeing,” Gropp said. Participants left the conference charged up by the thought-provoking discussion and visions of the possibilities that lie ahead. “I gained a deep appreciation for the scientific rigor and commitment being invested to understand our changing climate,” Brokish said. “I’m grateful that scientists are interested in how this information can be helpful to farmers, municipalities, and communities around the globe.” So, where does the project go from here? A report of the proceedings is expected to be issued on the summit website at the end of the year. The project team seeks to advance into more concrete planning, including identifying key stakeholders and use cases, translating these into requirements, developing a community of practice, and exploring funding opportunities. With continued collaboration among a diverse range of dedicated stakeholders, from scientists to technologists to community leaders and more, the vision of a more informed, more empowered world may yet be realized. ABOUT NCSAThe National Center for Supercomputing Applications at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign provides supercomputing, expertise and advanced digital resources for the nation’s science enterprise. At NCSA, University of Illinois faculty, staff, students and collaborators from around the globe use innovative resources to address research challenges for the benefit of science and society. NCSA has been assisting many of the world’s industry giants for over 35 years by bringing industry, researchers and students together to solve grand challenges at rapid speed and scale.